Stories people told themselves were biased by the availability of the material used to construct them...what people remember about the past, [Baseman and Seversky] suggested, is likely to warp their judgement of the future. "We often decide that an outcome is extremely unlikely or impossible, because we are unable to imagine any chain of events that could cause it to occur. The defect, often, is in our imagination.

The Undoing Project: A Friendship that Changed the World